Global logistics is in a cooling phase, with too much capacity chasing too little demand. Ocean container rates have dropped for 11 straight weeks and are down more than half from last year, while new vessel orders keep piling up. Air cargo is steadier but slowing, and U.S. trucking activity is still soft, with spot rates holding flat and less-than-truckload volumes continuing to shrink. Railroads are picking up momentum as intermodal shipments rise, and Amazon is rapidly expanding grocery delivery into U.S. cities. Warehouse demand is tilting toward free trade zones and custom-built sites, while older storage properties are seeing less interest. Inflation sits at .7% overall with core inflation at 3.1%.
With the removal of the de minimis exemption and new tariffs on imports from China, India, and other countries are straining parcel networks and forcing changes in sourcing. China is increasing ties with South America and Africa, while U.S. farmers are struggling to place their abundant harvests. The EU is working to open more access for American goods, Canada is dialing back some tariffs, and Asia remains central to global trade even as export growth slows. As the holidays approach, more than three-quarters of retail buyers report concerns over inventory, setting the stage for a fragile season despite steady consumer demand.
